Voters Can Thank Brady Duke If Sabatini Wins - CD 7 Analysis

Brady Duke has a near zero percent chance of winning Florida's Congressional District 7 Primary in the Republican Party. Period.

Duke’s recent attack on war hero Cory Mills, filled with half truths and outlandish statements, only serves to bolster one candidate in this race: State Representative Anthony Sabatini.

Duke waged the questionable attacks on his fellow warrior despite being a veteran himself.

While service in the military is to be commended, soldiering doesn't always translate into being a good legislator or statesman. Duke's track record on the trail so far tells the story of an ineffective, inorganic campaign built-upon gambling money from Steve Wynn (among others) and a hodgepodge of artificial contributions mostly generated via the purchase of donor lists from consultants.

After spending over $1 million over the past few months on his campaign, until July, Duke barely ticked the needle on the polls. It wasn’t until recently that things began to change for him. And that begs the question: if it takes this much effort to move Duke just a few percentage points up the ladder, how can he possibly come out on top with just three weeks left?

If the unhinged State Representative from Lake County wins in the upcoming August 23 primary, voters can thank Brady Duke.

Brady Duke simply doesn’t have enough traction among voters. No one knows who he is. He started too late in the game. The only candidate in a worst position than Brady Duke might be Ted Edwards or Erica Benfield.

Although the race clearly indicates Cory Mills and Anthony Sabatini as the front runners, that doesn’t necessarily mean a victory for an America First candidate.

Results in the Kansas primary illustrate voters, even among Republican Party, may now be seeking greater interest in moderate candidates.

The fact that a deep red state like Kansas supported abortion rights speaks to the concerns of women voters and some of the minority of moderates in the GOP (before we go further: of course, there have been exceptions to Kansas as a red state i.e. Kathleen Sebelius). Akin to the much discussed "soccer moms" that impacted the Trump 2020 campaign, the woman Republican voter may be seeking more moderation in their candidates.

Neither the wrecklessness of Sabatini nor the gun-toting imagery of Brady Duke fit that mold.

If Duke, Mills and Sabatini split votes, and even a small number of GOP voters trend in a more moderate trajectory, women GOP voters may provide an opening for Rusty Roberts or Scott Sturgill to step into the void. Their toned down rhetoric may, in a possible but less probable scenario, appeal to more moderate segments of the electorate, including some Republican women.

But moderation and civil rhetoric doesn't equal liberal position, which brings us to Ted Edwards. Almost no candidate in the race has been as stupid as Ted Edwards in advocating for a Democratic position in a Republican Primary (gun control). And certainly, Sturgill and Roberts, who have long held the position of being pro life, would be wise not waiver.

Ultimately the triumvirate of center right, moderate candidates does not possess the financial fire power to get them across the finish line. Of course, we’re three weeks out, fundraising can still radically change (we exclude Ted Edwards from this number, as most voters view him to be more liberal than conservative).

Anthony Sabatini boasts a strong cult of personality and many loyal supporters, including the benefit of wide online name recognition. Despite his seemingly organic support, Sabatini‘s legal woes and ties to corruption appear to have taken a toll on his poll numbers, especially following the release of two attack mailers highlighting his absenteeism, business relationships with pedophiles and his history of associating with criminals, including one he tasked to help with his own campaign.

As a self funder with massive television advertising buyouts, Cory Mills possesses both a financial and media advantage at this stage in the game. Like Donald Trump, some members of the Republican electorate in district 7 may view Cory Mills as unable to be bought off due to his success and his wealth.

By all accounts, Anthony Sabatini‘s financial fuel seems to be waning at this point in the campaign.

The fate of the primary in congressional district 7 will ultimately rest more on the dichotomy of vote splitting rather than finances or name recognition alone.

538 declared Anthony Sabatini the presumptive winner, even before a single vote was cast. We disagree, and it’s time politicos in our area begin waking up to the reality of a contested race.