Florida Senate Releases Draft Redistricting Maps

Rough drafts of Florida's redistricting maps were released in four variants, none of which provide Republicans, Florida's governing party, a serious upgrade in seats or electoral advantage.

Although Fair Districting laws ban the practice of Gerrymandering, a conservative majority on the Florida Supreme Court indicates legal barriers to Republican leaning maps may be overstated. Such observations have led some to question the finality of the maps.

Florida will add one new congressional seat.

Much speculation whirled over the past two years about where Florida’s “new” congressional district might be placed. Most predictions set the new district in Central Florida, which turned out to be accurate.

The district marked “28” on draft maps closely aligns to Florida’s 15th Congressional District, currently occupied by Republican Rep. Scott Franklin. The district marked “15” appears to be more of a blue-leaning district in the Tampa suburbs. The new “28” also carves into some of Democratic Rep. Darren Soto‘s district, which today is the most overpopulated in the state according to census totals, but leaves Soto’s hometown of Kissimmee in Florida’s 9th Congressional District.

The 2016 loss of long-time Congressman John Mica's seat followed a court ordered redistricting, leaving some to speculate that the relatively non-partisan nature of the maps may be a result of lessons learned from passed years about protecting incumbents.

However, other national observers were not so convinced.

“.....the map keeps (Florida’s 7th Congressional District) Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D) and (Florida’s 13th Congressional District) Rep. Charlie Crist (D) in Biden seats, even though Rs could turn them into double-digit Trump districts,” tweeted David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report. “I’d be very surprised if Tallahassee Rs settle for this. The only possible explanation, if this map doesn’t undergo drastic changes: Republicans are afraid of an adverse ‘Fair Districts’ ruling from the FL Supreme Court and want to ensure their own incumbents’ safety first.”

Another far-fetched explaination for the minimal display of partisanship in the maps' Central Florida corridor revolves around state politics. In this scenario, the maps' design serves as a tool for state legislative leadership to undermine one of their most unfavorite sons, State Representative Anthony Sabatini.

Sabatini currently remains locked in a race for the Republican nomination in Congressional district 7 where several other candidates, including mega-fundraiser Cory Mills maintain strong positions as well. Some wonder whether a Sturgill-Miller style replay may occur between the two conservative titans now circling Congresswoman Stephanie Murphy's territory.

Although Sabatini may again switch districts, both donors and supporters will likely be bemused at such a decision.

State Senate maps were also released with far fewer responses by observers.

Above: Draft State Senate maps. Photos: Courtesy Florida State Senate